The Establishment Is Trying to Kill Brexit

The April 12 date for Great Britain to leave the European
Union has now passed, and Great Britain is still paying about 1 billion pounds
($1.3 billion) a month to be a member of the EU.

Last Friday’s departure date was a delay to a previous March
29 deadline, and now it has been moved back yet again, this time to Oct. 31.

The departure date was supposedly set in order to give an
ultimatum to the EU to make concessions on trade rules. Otherwise, the U.K.
would be willing to leave without a deal and revert to World Trade Organization’s
terms and tariffs.

“No deal is better than a bad deal,” Prime Minister Theresa May has said more than 100 times. So, why did she then flinch and delay exiting? Owen Paterson, a Conservative member of Parliament, says “the government was never going to countenance no-deal.”

So, what if the no-deal exit wasn’t intended to threaten the
EU at all, but May’s own Parliament?

What if the deadline was really put there to force members
of Parliament to vote for May’s withdrawal agreement, or otherwise be seen as responsible
for Britain “falling off a ‘no-deal’ cliff edge and into the abyss?”

When May’s bluff was called, and the vote still failed, she pleaded
some more with the EU to extend the date to give her colleagues more time to
come around.

Sound plausible?

The prime minister and her long-serving finance minister,
Philip Hammond, who voted to remain in the EU, have been working to modify the
result of the June 23, 2016, Brexit referendum ever since she became prime
minister about three weeks later, on July 13.

Alarm bells should have rung after her extraordinary July
2018 meeting at Chequers, the prime minister’s official country residence.

There, she cajoled Cabinet ministers into accepting an EU-friendly
plan she had secretly drawn up with unelected civil servants. This so undermined
the negotiating position of her Brexit minister, David Davis, that he resigned
a few days later.

Although the Chequers plan as a whole was rejected by members of Parliament and in Brussels, the home of the European Union, some provisions of it made it into the withdrawal agreement she later signed with the EU.

British parliamentarians have since voted against that deal
three times, but as the margin of defeat keeps narrowing—from
230 to 149 to 58—she aims to bring it back for a vote a fourth time, or
more, if needed.

Not unlike the negotiating tactics of Andrei Gromyko, the former USSR’s onetime foreign minister, May’s strategy is based on stubbornness. But for the anti-Brexit “Remainers,” it has brought huge success.

Nearly three years on, Britain is still a member of the EU, and
Parliament has taken “no deal” off the menu. The only choices left for members
of Parliament now are to vote for her agreement or abandon Brexit altogether.

The deal has been criticized for potentially separating Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom and keeping Britain subject to ongoing EU controls without any representation—a “vassal state,” as leading Brexit proponent Jacob Rees-Mogg has described it.

May’s latest overtures to the Labour Party to help get her
deal through could also lead to Britain staying in the EU Customs Union and unable
to make its own trade deals.

That’s dismissed by Hammond, who
recently gloated, “In a year’s time, when this
is behind us, and people are focused on other things, all this will be

Pro-Brexit forces aren’t taking all this sitting
down, however.

A group called the English Democrats has brought a case to
the High Court, asserting that Britain has already left the EU, as there was no
basis in UK law for changing the original March 29 default exit date.

There are also renewed calls to remove May as prime minister
from many leading Conservatives, such as Sir William Cash.

How to do that in the short term without potentially
removing many of themselves in the process in a general election is not
immediately clear. That’s because not only has May made Brexit immeasurably more
difficult, she has made the Conservative Party toxic as well.

May also has to face a resurgent Nigel Farage with his new
Brexit party, which aims to become the EU’s worst nightmare and wants to challenge
the British two-party system.

Farage hopes to do well in the May 23-26 EU parliamentary
elections, which Britain will now have to take part in at a cost of more than 100
million pounds ($130 million).

Farage further hopes his fledgling party will become a major
force in British politics by appealing to some 17.4 million largely disillusioned
pro-Brexit voters.

Stay tuned for the next installment in this convoluted
Brexit saga.